Specifically, is
what Humans are doing significantly warming the planet?
Many
scientists believe it is real and dangerous, but as with nearly
everything there are many different opinions.
Many people are
skeptical. One of the
problems is getting reliable information.
For
example, you can cite the
breakup of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the Antarctic as evidence that the
ice round
Antarctica is getting less, but is it really?
Or is this event just a
local occurrence and not indicative of anything more general?
The same sort of question
could be asked about any other datum cited.
Since scientists do not agree, how can we be expected to sift the information reliably?
The question of what, if
anything, we
are doing to the world's climate is important.
Predictions range from
another ice age being imminent to a rapid rise in sea
level by a total
of over 80 meters. These
are among the more extreme predictions on both
sides.
What Should We Do?
No doubt there
can be as many answers to this question as ideas about what will
happen.
However,
this is my answer to the question.
Firstly we need much more information.
This applies both to the scientific information available
and to the general public. Education
is important, as is
research. "The
power of the people is paramount", but, we, the people, need to know
to be able to exercise our paramount
power
intelligently. In my
opinion,
we should not ignore the global
warming debate, but to
listen
to both sides.
In the short term?
But what should
we do until we are more sure about what is happening?
I
think we should be acting conservatively until we know more. By this, I
mean that we should avoid big changes to the Earth, such as
increasing
greenhouse gasses by our actions.
For
example, there are
extremely good reasons, not related to climate change, for
countries to
reduce their reliance on imported fuels.
If the United States of
America was able to stop
importing oil, its balance of payments would
be much healthier. The
same applies to other oil importing countries.
There seems no doubt that the physics behind
the greenhouse effect is real.
That is, if you increase the
concentration of "greenhouse
gasses" in the atmosphere,
more
heat will
be trapped. What is less
certain is how important this is.
For example,
if the Sun goes through a cooling phase, this could totally
overwhelm
the effect of greenhouse gasses.
This is largely the idea of the
scientists (not just Russian) who expect another ice age soon.
Some
interpretations of the geological evidence point out that in the
past,
when there were more greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere the
average
temperature of the Earth was much warmer, and there was no ice at
the
poles. Not everyone
agrees.
Sources
Pravda reported
in January 2009
"The
earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to
a
large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of
climate
science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of
long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand
year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and
then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next
100,000
years."
The other extreme, a rise in sea level of 80 meters is
based on the Encyclopedia
Britannica's 2005 CD ROM edition estimate
that if all the ice
in the Antarctic melted the sea
level would rise by
80 meters. Naturally, if
this happened we would expect the other ice of
the world to melt and the sea
level rise to be nearer
90
meters. (The
ice Sheets of Antarctica
are possibly the most stable on Earth.)
Note
that the Enclopedia Brittanica was not predicting that this is
going to
happen.
For
all the
ice in the world to melt
quickly would
require some sort of positive feed back, such as described in "The
Methane Gun".
